La necesidad de soporte a la población de Barcelona ante el impacto potencial de un incremento climático de la temperatura ambiente = The need for support to the population of Barcelona facing the potential impact of climate increment of ambient temperature

José Miguel Raso Nadal, Juan Carlos Peña Rabadán

Resumen


El análisis estadístico de la mortalidad y las temperaturas diarias registradas en Barcelona y su ajuste mediante funciones polinómicas permite establecer la relación existente entre ambas variables y estimar los posibles efectos de un incremento climático de las temperaturas, limitado a uno o dos grados centígrados, que previsiblemente tendrá lugar antes de finalizar el presente siglo, si se cumplen los pronósticos anunciados en los recientes informes del IPCC. Los cálculos realizados ponen de manifiesto la relación entre las temperaturas y el número de fallecimientos y sugieren un futuro incremento de la mortalidad durante el verano y un descenso estimable a lo largo de las restantes estaciones, sobre todo en invierno y primavera. A pesar de que el previsible incremento de las temperaturas pueda acarrear un aumento del número de muertos durante los meses más calurosos del año inferior a los descensos calculados para los restantes meses, resulta totalmente necesario el establecimiento de sistemas eficaces de alerta, aviso y soporte a la población más sensible a las condiciones atmosféricas extremas. Tales sistemas, además de prever e informar ampliamente sobre la inminencia de episodios que comporten riesgos graves para la salud, deben contar con la colaboración de especialistas sanitarios preparados para ayudar a las personas carentes de medios que precisen una especial atención.

The statistical analysis of the mortality and the daily temperatures registered in Barcelona and his adjustment by means of polynomial functions allows to establish existing relation between both variables and to estimate the possible effects of a climatic increase of the temperatures, limited to one or two degrees centigrade that, predictably it will take place before finishing the present century, if they are fulfilled the prognoses announced in the recent reports of the IPCC. The realized calculations make clear the relation between the temperatures and the number of death and suggest a future increase of the mortality during the summer and an estimable descent along the remaining stations, especially in winter and spring. Although the foreseeable increase of the temperatures could transport an increase of the number of dead persons during the most warm months of the year lower than the descents calculated for the remaining months, there turns out to be completely necessary the establishment of effective systems of alert, notice and support to the population most sensitive to the atmospheric extreme conditions. Such systems must not limit to foreseeing and inform widely about the imminence of episodes that they should endure serious risks for the health, but be provided with the collaboration of sanitary specialists prepared to help the persons lacking in means to need a special attention.


Palabras clave


Barcelona; cambio climático; mortalidad; ola de calor; riesgos para la salud; sistema de vigilancia y aviso; temperatura; Barcelona; climate change; health risk; heatwave; mortality; temperature; watch/warning system

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Referencias


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