Seed advantage in sport competitions: the case of professional judo

Vivien Brunel

doi:10.18002/rama.v17i2.7047

Autores/as

Vivien Brunel Pôle Léonard de Vinci (France) http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5624-1194

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.18002/rama.v17i2.7047

Palabras clave:

Artes marciales, deportes de combate, judo, clasificación, simulación Monte-Carlo, competición, cabeza de serie

Agencias Financiadoras:

The author received no funding for this work.

Resumen

El objetivo de este trabajo fue cuantificar la ventaja de ser cabeza de serie en competiciones de judo profesional disputadas por sistema de eliminatorias. Utilizamos simulaciones Monte-Carlo para calcular estadísticas, incluyendo la probabilidad de ganar la competición, llegar a la final o ganar una medalla a partir de un sorteo de competición estándar o un sorteo de competición aleatorio. Mostramos que la ventaja de los cabeza de serie es, a menudo, significativa. Como resultado, una clasificación errónea en el ranking supone una gran desventaja para los mejores atletas que no son cabeza de serie. Curiosamente, la ventaja de los cabezas de serie es sólida al considerar parámetros como el sexo, el número de atletas y las suposiciones del modelo. La simulación es una herramienta flexible que permite que los atletas tomen decisiones relativas a la gestión de su posición en el ranking y optimicen sus probabilidades de éxito en grandes competiciones.

Descargas

Los datos de descargas todavía no están disponibles.

Métricas alternativas

Biografía del autor/a

Vivien Brunel, Pôle Léonard de Vinci (France)

Professor of applied mathematics and finance at Ecole Supérieure d’Ingénieurs Léonard de Vinci (ESILV) a French “Grande Ecole” based in La Défense, the main business district in Paris. He also has position in the banking industry as the head of risk models of Société Générale. These two positions help him to bridge academics with the industry and he published regularly articles in academic peer reviewed journals in the field of risk management, scoring and statistical modelling. He is also a columnist in the magazine “the spirit of judo” in which he writes about science and judo; he has 40 years of experience in judo and aïkido. E-mail: vivien.brunel@devinci.fr

Citas

Appleton, D.R. (1995). May the best man win? Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series D (The Statistician), 44(4), 529–538. https://doi.org/10.2307/2348901

Breviglieri, P. V, Possa, M. E. S., Campos, V. M., Humberstone, C., & Franchini, E. (2018). Judo world ranking lists and performance during cadet, junior and senior World Championships. Ido Movement for Culture. Journal of Martial Arts Anthropology, 18(2), 48–53. http://doi.org/10.14589/ido.18.2.7

Carter, W.H., & Crews, S. L. (1974). An Analysis of the Game of Tennis. The American Statistician, 28(4), 130-134. https://doi.org/10.1080/00031305.1974.10479094

Clarke, S.R., & Dyte, D. (2000). Using official ratings to simulate major tennis tournaments. International Transactions in Operational Research, 7, 585-594. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-3995.2000.tb00218.x

Cohen-Zada, D., Krumer, A., & Shtudiner, Z. (2017). Psychological momentum and gender. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 135, 66-81. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2017.01.009URL

Courel-Ibáñez J., Escobar-Molina R., & Franchini E. (2018). Does the ranking position predict the final combat outcome in senior and junior judo athletes? Revista de Artes Marciales Asiáticas, 13(2), 131-138. http://dx.doi.org/10.18002/rama.v13i2.5471

Daniel, L.F., & Daniel, R. (2013). Study regarding the prediction of medal winning in Olympic Games judo competitions. Journal of Physical Education and Sport, 13(3), 386-390. https://doi.org/10.7752/jpes.2013.03062

Filaire, E., Sagnol, M., Ferrand, C., Maso, F., & Lac, G. (2001). Psychophysiological stress in judo athletes during competitions. The Journal of sports medicine and physical fitness, 41(2), 263-268.

Franchini, E., & Julio, U.F. (2015). The judo world ranking and the performances in the 2012 London Olympics. Asian Journal of Sport Medicine, 6(3), e24045. https://dx.doi.org/10.5812%2Fasjsm.24045

Franchini, E., Takito, M.Y., da Silva, R.M., Shiroma, S.A., Wicks, L., & Julio, U.F. (2017). Optimal interval for success in judo world-ranking competitions. International Journal of Sports Physiology and Performance, 12(5), 707-710. https://doi.org/10.1123/ijspp.2016-0375

Guilheiro, L. M., & Franchini, E. (2017). Be seeded or not be seeded? A study with Olympic judo athletes. Journal of Exercise Rehabilitation, 13(2), 148-1 52. https://doi.org/10.12965/jer.1734904.452

International Judo Federation (2019). Sport and Organisation Rules. www.ijf.org, 23 July 2019.

Jackson, D.A. (1993). Independent trials are a model for disaster. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C (Applied Statistics), 42(1), 211-220. https://doi.org/10.2307/2347421

Julio, U. F., Panissa, V. L. G., Miarka, B., Takito, M. Y., & Franchini, E. (2013). Home advantage in judo: a study of the world ranking list. Journal of Sports Sciences, 31(2), 212–218. http://doi.org/10.1080/02640414.2012.725855

Krumer, A. (2017). On winning probabilities, weight categories, and home advantage in professional judo. Journal of Sports Economics, 18(1), 77-96. https://doi.org/10.1177%2F1527002514560576

Maçaneiro, G.G.B., Pardo-Ginés, A., & Franchini, E. (2021). Judo mixed team matche outcome and the judo world ranking list. Revista de Artes Marciales Asiáticas, 16(1), 12-22. http://dx.doi.org/10.18002/rama.v16i1.6288

Marchand, E. (2002). On the comparison between standard and random knockout tournaments. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series D (The Statistician), 51(2), 169-178. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9884.00309

Newton, P.K., & Aslam, K. (2006). Monte-Carlo tennis. SIAM Review, 48(4), 722-742. https://doi.org/10.1137/050640278

Newton, P.K., & Aslam, K. (2009). Monte-Carlo tennis: a stochastic markov chain model. Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, 5(3). https://doi.org/10.2202/1559-0410.1169

Ross, S.M., & Ghamami, S. (2008). Efficient Simulation of a Random Knockout Tournament. Journal of Industrial and Systems Engineering, 2(2), 88-96. https://dorl.net/dor/20.1001.1.17358272.2008.2.2.1.6

Schwenk, A.J. (2000). What is the correct way to seed a knockout tournament? The American Mathematical Monthly, 107(2), 140-150. https://doi.org/10.1080/00029890.2000.12005171

Searls, D.T. (1963). On the probability of winning with different tournament procedures. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 58(304), 1064-1081. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1963.10480688

Wood, R. I., & Stanton, S. J. (2012). Testosterone and sport: current perspectives. Hormones and behavior, 61(1), 147–155. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.yhbeh.2011.09.010

Suay F., Salvador A., González-Bono E., Sanchís C., Martínez M., Martínez-Sanchis S., Simón V.M., & Montoro J.B. (1999). Effects of competition and its outcome on serum testosterone, cortisol and prolactin. Psychoneuroendocrinology, 24(5), 551-66. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0306-4530(99)00011-6