Análisis de la integración y dependencia de las políticas monetarias de la Unión Europea

María del Carmen González Velasco; Roque Brinckmann

doi:10.18002/pec.v0i2011.752

Autores/as

María del Carmen González Velasco Universidad de León. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales
Roque Brinckmann Universidad Federal de Santa Catarina

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.18002/pec.v0i2011.752

Palabras clave:

Política monetaria, Tipos interbancarios, Mercado interbancario, Cointegración, Monetary policy, Interbank rates, Interbank market, Cointegration, Dependence, Uncovered interest parity

Resumen

En este artículo se efectúa un análisis de la integración y dependencia de las políticas monetarias de la Unión Europea y, en concreto, de las políticas monetarias de la Unión Económica yMonetaria y de la zona no euro para el periodo comprendido entre Enero de 1999 y Septiembre 2009. Se aplica la metodología de la cointegración de Engle y Granger (1987) y de Johansen(1988) para contrastar la hipótesis de la paridad de tipos de interés no cubierta y se llega a la conclusión de que ambas políticas están cointegradas porque mantienen una relación de equilibrio a largo plazo. También se deduce una dependencia de la política del Banco de Inglaterra de la política del Banco Central Europeo, lo que confirma la importancia y el liderazgo de la Unión Económica y Monetaria.

This study is to investigate the long-run relationship and dependence between the UME´s monetary policy and non-euro zone´s monetary policy for the period from January 4, 1999 to September 30, 2009. We use cointegration methodology to test the Uncovered Interest Parity Hypothesis and the results indicate a long-run cointegration and empirical evidence testifies a leader-follower pattern between the two central banks. According to this pattern, the Bank of England does follow the European Central Bank.

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